Report Compiled: 2020-05-19

Johns Hopkins Repo Commit: 8390ba6 Max Data Date: 2020-05-18

NYT Repo Commit: e7f95ae Max Data Date: 2020-05-18

This is an automatically generated report containing analyses of the COVID-19 epidemic in Iowa and elsewhere. All models under consideration here are stochastic SEIR compartmental models, fit using Approximate Bayesian Computation using the ABSEIR software for R. Source code available upon request. Questions should be directed to grant-brown@uiowa.edu

There are two general classes of model:

  1. Models which use a single location of mortality data to estimate the epidemic curves
  2. Models which are used to provide informative prior information about the epidemic in Iowa, based on analyses of other locations.

In both cases, we have to make assumptions about the shape of the underlying contact distributions. Namely, can we assume that contact in each location shifted within one week of governmental action, or is the shape of the curve more complex. With that in mind, we look at both types of models. In addition, for the State of Iowa, we consider whether or not it is most reasonable to assume that intervention efforts began on 3-17-2020 or 4-4-2020, which correspond to the emergency declaration and the official closing of schools.

** A huge array of models are presented in this document, and they are not reviewed by our team of experts before posting to this page. Some of these are guaranteed to be inadequate or misleading if interpreted by themselves. These results should be considered raw material for follow-up reporting, investigation, and decision-making.**

R0 Summaries: Single Location Analyses

Mortality Estimates: Single Location Analyses

Here, we present the compared results of analyses of the COVID-19 outbreak in a number of locations. We begin by comparing the estimated posterior distribution of mortality rates in each location.

Model Fit: Single Location Analyses

In the following tabbed sections, we present diverse output from the single location models, including projections over time of the following important quantities:

Illinois

Washington

Minnesota

Iowa (3-17)

Iowa (4-4)

Illinois (Spline Model)

Washington (Spline Model)

Minnesota (Spline Model)

Iowa (3-17, Spline Model)

Iowa (4-4, Spline Model)

Iowa Specific Projections

In the following sections, we apply the estimated intervention intensity from the previous analyses to the situation in Iowa, with the hope that by borrowing information from other locations we can improve the precision of our projections.

Iowa Analysis Based on: Illinois - Intervention Term Applied 2020-03-17

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Illinois - Intervention Term Applied 2020-04-4

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Washington - Intervention Term Applied 2020-03-17

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Washington - Intervention Term Applied 2020-04-4

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Minnesota - Intervention Term Applied 2020-03-17

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Minnesota - Intervention Term Applied 2020-04-4

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Illinois - Intervention Term Applied 2020-03-17

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Illinois - Intervention Term Applied 2020-04-4

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Washington - Intervention Term Applied 2020-03-17

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Washington - Intervention Term Applied 2020-04-4

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Minnesota - Intervention Term Applied 2020-03-17

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Minnesota - Intervention Term Applied 2020-04-4

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Table of projected mortality by model/assumption

Mortality As Of: Training Location Intervention Date Model Type 10th Percentile 50th Percentile 90th Percentile
2020-06-29 Illinois 04-04-2020 Shift 608.6716 863.0240 1314.9021
2020-06-29 Illinois 04-04-2020 Spline 537.7166 798.8159 1193.3859
2020-06-29 Illinois 03-17-2020 Shift 984.5273 1433.9409 2112.4757
2020-06-29 Illinois 03-17-2020 Spline 697.4078 1062.9379 1742.8990
2020-06-29 Iowa 04-04-2020 Shift 491.3161 814.8636 1588.0447
2020-06-29 Iowa 04-04-2020 Spline 545.3875 903.9995 2139.6647
2020-06-29 Iowa 03-17-2020 Shift 810.9377 1222.7546 2324.9125
2020-06-29 Iowa 03-17-2020 Spline 634.4321 1143.8874 3245.0064
2020-06-29 Minnesota 04-04-2020 Shift 457.9162 647.6360 935.1558
2020-06-29 Minnesota 04-04-2020 Spline 472.7013 618.4041 1056.2094
2020-06-29 Minnesota 03-17-2020 Shift 878.6664 1212.6148 1859.5756
2020-06-29 Minnesota 03-17-2020 Spline 541.5254 854.0740 2254.7516
2020-06-29 Washington 04-04-2020 Shift 489.8620 704.5827 909.8041
2020-06-29 Washington 04-04-2020 Spline 467.6861 673.5858 1003.1496
2020-06-29 Washington 03-17-2020 Shift 946.8072 1336.8826 1988.1957
2020-06-29 Washington 03-17-2020 Spline 683.3916 1250.3655 3736.0301
2020-06-02 Iowa 04-04-2020 Shift 388.1946 485.4485 671.6051
2020-06-02 Iowa 04-04-2020 Spline 383.6665 499.9175 674.6142
2020-06-02 Iowa 03-17-2020 Shift 451.3628 541.4711 663.1365
2020-06-02 Iowa 03-17-2020 Spline 400.6062 555.6816 657.2261